Increased Costs and Reduced Selection for Back-to-School Supplies
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As families prepare for the new school year, they may find themselves facing higher prices and potentially less variety in back-to-school items due to tariffs.
Retailers are grappling with the impact of tariffs on imports from high tariff countries, such as China, by ordering less inventory and trying to source domestically. This shift has led to a projected price increase of 15-25% for back-to-school items by September 1.
Products such as apparel, sneakers, backpacks, pens, and pencils will be affected by these price hikes. Some retailers have already stocked up early or are offering discounts to ease budget pressures, but prices remain elevated compared to previous years.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there has been a 9% year-over-year increase in school supply categories as of May 2025, partly attributed to lingering tariff effects.
The lack of certainty surrounding tariffs has also led some retailers to delay purchasing, potentially impacting product variety. However, no widespread shortages are currently reported.
Professor Patrick Penfield, a professor of practice in supply chain management and director of executive education at the Syracuse University Whitman School, advises parents to begin back-to-school shopping as soon as possible to get lower prices and better variety. He suggests comparing stores to manage expenses this back-to-school season.
Early shopping has increased sharply, with 67% of families starting back-to-school purchases by early July 2025, compared to 55% last year, driven largely by fears of rising costs due to tariffs.
Retailers like Target are attempting to hold prices steady on key items and offering discounts to help families manage budgets. However, the overall back-to-school spending is rising in total because more shoppers are purchasing, but average spending per family has slightly decreased from $874.68 in 2024 to $858.07 in 2025, likely reflecting more cautious spending behavior amid economic uncertainty and inflation.
In sum, tariffs are contributing to higher prices and encouraging early, strategic shopping to mitigate cost increases. Although product variety remains generally available, the uncertainty and selective purchasing by retailers could lead to somewhat narrower choices in certain categories. Families might benefit from seeking discounts, shopping early, and comparing stores to manage expenses this back-to-school season.
In the face of tariff-induced price hikes for back-to-school items, some families might consider alternate categories for savings, such as exploring deals-and-discounts in home-and-garden or lifestyle products while shopping. It's also beneficial for households to keep an eye on retailer offers, like those from Target, for potential discounts on home-and-garden and lifestyle products during the back-to-school shopping season.
